利用者:新世紀のウィキぺディア/sandbox

画家による想像図。今から70億年後には、地球は黒焦げになり、赤色巨星となった太陽に飲み込まれると考えられている。

全ての未来についての予測は確実であることは有り得ず、遠未来の出来事は簡略であることだけについて様々な予測が許される。それらは惑星や恒星の外観、相互作用、死が推測される天体物理学、最も小さいスケールにおいて物体がどのような振る舞いをするかが推測される素粒子物理学、長期に渡って生物がどのように進化していくかどうかが推測される進化生物学、何ミレニアムにも渡って大陸がどのように動いていくかが推測されるプレートテクニクスなどである。 全ての地球の未来、太陽系の未来そして宇宙の未来についての推定は熱力学第二法則に則って計算されなければならず、エントロピーの状態利用できるエネルギーのロスは必ず時間と共に増大していく。恒星はやがては必ず水素を使い果たして燃え尽きてしまうし、恒星の重力を振り切ってそれらの惑星系から飛んできた惑星や銀河からのスター・システムと人類が遭遇する確率も低い。

やがては、物体は放射性崩壊を起こすし、最も安定した金属も壊れて亜原子粒子となる。最新のデータは宇宙の形は平らであるか、それに非常に近く、宇宙は永遠にビッククランチを起こさないことを予想する。そして、無限の未来では潜在的に大規模でありそうにない出来事の発生が許され、いくつもの出来事の構成はボルズマン・ブレインによって予測されたものである。 この年表は11千年紀の始まりから推測が及ぶ最も遠い未来までに予想される出来事を記述している。年表の中にはまだ解明されていない事柄がいくつも含まれている。人類が絶滅するかどうか、陽子崩壊が起こるかどうか、赤色巨星となった太陽に飲み込まれた地球が生き延びられるかどうかなどによって、未来は変わってくる。

どの学問によってその出来事が推測されるか

[[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=天文学と天体物理学|天文学と天体物理学]	天文学と天体物理学
	地質学と惑星科学
	生物学
	素粒子物理学
	数学
	技術と文化

Future of the Earth, the Solar System and the Universe

	Years from now	Event
	10,000	If a failure of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin "ice plug" in the next few centuries were to endanger the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, it will take up to this long to melt completely. Sea levels would rise 3 to 4 meters. (One of the potential long-term effects of global warming, this is separate from the shorter term threat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet).
	10,000	The red supergiant star Antares will likely have exploded in a supernova. The explosion is expected to be easily visible in daylight.
	25,000	The northern Martian polar ice cap could recede as Mars reaches a warming peak of the northern hemisphere during the ~50,000 year perihelion precession aspect of its Milankovitch cycle.
	36,000	The small red dwarf Ross 248 will pass within 3.024 light years of Earth, becoming the closest star to the Sun. It will recede after about 8,000 years, making first Alpha Centauri again and then Gliese 445 the nearest stars (see timeline).
	50,000	According to Berger and Loutre, the current interglacial period ends sending the Earth back into a glacial period of the current ice age, regardless of the effects of anthropogenic global warming. Niagara Falls will have eroded away the remaining 32 km to Lake Erie, and ceased to exist. The many glacial lakes of the Canadian Shield will have been erased by post-glacial rebound and erosion.
	50,000	The length of the day used for astronomical timekeeping reaches about 86,401 SI seconds, due to lunar tides decelerating the Earth's rotation. Under the present-day timekeeping system, a leap second will need to be added to the clock every day.
	100,000	The proper motion of stars across the celestial sphere, which is the result of their movement through the Milky Way, renders many of the constellations unrecognisable.
	100,000	The hypergiant star VY Canis Majoris will likely have exploded in a hypernova.
	100,000	Earth will likely have undergone a supervolcanic eruption large enough to erupt 400 km3 of magma. For comparison, Lake Erie is 484 km3.
	100,000	Native North American earthworms, such as Megascolecidae, will have naturally spread north through the United States Upper Midwest to the Canada–US border, recovering from the Laurentide ice sheet glaciation (38°N to 49°N), assuming a migration rate of 10 m / year. (However, non-native invasive earthworms of North America have already been introduced by humans on a much shorter timescale, causing a shock to the regional ecosystem).
	100,000+	As one of the long-term effects of global warming, 10% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide will still remain in a stabilized atmosphere.
	250,000	Lōʻihi, the youngest volcano in the Hawaiian–Emperor seamount chain, will rise above the surface of the ocean and become a new volcanic island.
	~300,000	At some point in the next "several" hundred thousand years, the Wolf-Rayet star WR 104 is expected to explode in a supernova. It has been suggested that it may produce a gamma ray burst that could pose a threat to life on Earth should its poles be aligned 12° or lower towards Earth. The star's axis of rotation has yet to be determined with certainty.
	500,000	Earth will likely have been hit by an asteroid of roughly 1 km in diameter, assuming it cannot be averted.
	500,000	The rugged terrain of Badlands National Park in South Dakota will have eroded away completely.
	950,000	Meteor Crater, a large impact crater in Arizona considered the "freshest" of its kind, will have been eroded away.
	1 million	Earth will likely have undergone a supervolcanic eruption large enough to erupt 3,200 km3 of magma, an event comparable to the Toba supereruption 75,000 years ago.
	1 million	Highest estimated time until the red supergiant star Betelgeuse explodes in a supernova. The explosion is expected to be easily visible in daylight.
	1.4 million	The star Gliese 710 will pass as close as 13,365 AU (0.2 light years to the Sun) before moving away. This will gravitationally perturb members of the Oort cloud, a halo of icy bodies orbiting at the edge of the Solar System, thereafter increasing the likelihood of a cometary impact in the inner Solar System.
	2 million	Estimated time required for coral reef ecosystems to physically rebuild and biologically recover from current human-caused ocean acidification.
	2 million+	The Grand Canyon will erode further, deepening slightly, but principally widening into a broad valley surrounding the Colorado River.
	2.7 million	Average orbital half-life of current centaurs, that are unstable because of gravitational interaction of the several outer planets. See predictions for notable centaurs.
	10 million	The widening East African Rift valley is flooded by the Red Sea, causing a new ocean basin to divide the continent of Africa and the African Plate into the newly formed Nubian Plate and the Somali Plate.
	10 million	Estimated time for full recovery of biodiversity after a potential Holocene extinction, if it were on the scale of the five previous major extinction events. Even without a mass extinction, by this time most current species will have disappeared through the background extinction rate, with many clades gradually evolving into new forms. (However, without a mass extinction, there will now be an ecological crisis requiring millions of years of recovery).
	50 million	Maximum estimated time before the moon Phobos collides with Mars.
	50 million	The Californian coast begins to be subducted into the Aleutian Trench due to its northward movement along the San Andreas Fault. Africa's collision with Eurasia closes the Mediterranean Basin and creates a mountain range similar to the Himalayas. The Appalachian Mountains peaks will largely erode away, weathering at 5.7 Bubnoff units, although topography will actually increase as regional valleys deepen at twice this rate.
	50–60 million	The Canadian Rockies will erode away to a plain, assuming a rate of 60 Bubnoff units. (The Southern Rockies in the United States are eroding at a somewhat slower rate.)
	50–400 million	Estimated time for Earth to naturally replenish its fossil fuel reserves.
	80 million	The Big Island becomes the last of the current Hawaiian Islands to sink beneath the surface of the ocean.
	100 million	Earth will likely have been hit by an asteroid comparable in size to the one that triggered the K–Pg extinction 65 million years ago, assuming it cannot be averted.
	100 million	Upper estimate for lifespan of the rings of Saturn in their current state.
	230 million	Prediction of the orbits of the planets is impossible over greater time spans than this, due to the limitations of Lyapunov time.
	240 million	From its present position, the Solar System completes one full orbit of the Galactic center.
	250 million	All the continents on Earth may fuse into a supercontinent. Three potential arrangements of this configuration have been dubbed Amasia, Novopangaea, and Pangaea Ultima.
	400–500 million	The supercontinent (Pangaea Ultima, Novopangaea, or Amasia) will likely have rifted apart.
	500–600 million	Estimated time until a gamma ray burst, or massive, hyperenergetic supernova, occurs within 6,500 light-years of Earth; close enough for its rays to affect Earth's ozone layer and potentially trigger a mass extinction, assuming the hypothesis is correct that a previous such explosion triggered the Ordovician–Silurian extinction event. However, the supernova would have to be precisely oriented relative to Earth to have any negative effect.
	600 million	Tidal acceleration moves the Moon far enough from Earth that total solar eclipses are no longer possible.
	600 million	The Sun's increasing luminosity begins to disrupt the carbonate–silicate cycle; higher luminosity increases weathering of surface rocks, which traps carbon dioxide in the ground as carbonate. As water evaporates from the Earth's surface, rocks harden, causing plate tectonics to slow and eventually stop. Without volcanoes to recycle carbon into the Earth's atmosphere, carbon dioxide levels begin to fall. By this time, carbon dioxide levels will fall to the point at which C3 photosynthesis is no longer possible. All plants that utilize C3 photosynthesis (~99 percent of present-day species) will die.
	800 million	Carbon dioxide levels fall to the point at which C4 photosynthesis is no longer possible. Free oxygen and ozone disappear from the atmosphere. Multicellular life dies out.
	1 billion	The Sun's luminosity has increased by 10 percent, causing Earth's surface temperatures to reach an average of ~320 K (47 °C, 116 °F). The atmosphere will become a "moist greenhouse", resulting in a runaway evaporation of the oceans. Pockets of water may still be present at the poles, allowing abodes for simple life.
	1.3 billion	Eukaryotic life dies out due to carbon dioxide starvation. Only prokaryotes remain.
	1.5–1.6 billion	The Sun's increasing luminosity causes its circumstellar habitable zone to move outwards; as carbon dioxide increases in Mars's atmosphere, its surface temperature rises to levels akin to Earth during the ice age.
	2.3 billion	The Earth's outer core freezes, if the inner core continues to grow at its current rate of 1 mm per year. Without its liquid outer core, the Earth's magnetic field shuts down, and charged particles emanating from the Sun gradually deplete the atmosphere.
	2.8 billion	Earth's surface temperature, even at the poles, reaches an average of ~422 K (149 °C; 300 °F). At this point, life, now reduced to unicellular colonies in isolated, scattered microenvironments such as high-altitude lakes or subsurface caves, will completely die out.
	3 billion	Median point at which the Moon's increasing distance from the Earth lessens its stabilising effect on the Earth's axial tilt. As a consequence, Earth's true polar wander becomes chaotic and extreme.
	3.3 billion	One percent chance that Jupiter's gravity may make Mercury's orbit so eccentric as to collide with Venus, sending the inner Solar System into chaos and potentially leading to a planetary collision with Earth. Other possible scenarios include Mercury colliding with the Sun, being ejected from the Solar System, or colliding with Earth.
	3.5–4.5 billion	The amount of water vapour in the lower atmosphere increases to 40%. This, combined with the luminosity of the Sun reaching roughly 35–40% more than its present-day value, will result in Earth's atmosphere heating up and the surface temperature skyrocketing to roughly 1,600 K (1,330 °C; 2,420 °F), hot enough to melt surface rock. This essentially will make the planet much like how Venus is today.
	3.6 billion	Neptune's moon Triton falls through the planet's Roche limit, potentially disintegrating into a planetary ring system similar to Saturn's.
	4 billion	Median point by which the Andromeda Galaxy will have collided with the Milky Way, which will thereafter merge to form a galaxy dubbed "Milkomeda". The planets of the Solar System are expected to be relatively unaffected by this collision.
	5 billion	With the hydrogen supply exhausted at its core, the Sun leaves the main sequence and begins to evolve into a red giant.
	7.5 billion	Earth and Mars may become tidally locked with the expanding subgiant Sun.
	7.59 billion	The Earth and Moon are very likely destroyed by falling into the Sun, just before the Sun reaches the tip of its red giant phase and its maximum radius of 256 times the present day value. Before the final collision, the Moon possibly spirals below Earth's Roche limit, breaking into a ring of debris, most of which falls to the Earth's surface.
	7.9 billion	The Sun reaches the tip of the red-giant branch of the Hertzsprung–Russell diagram, achieving its maximum radius of 256 times the present day value. In the process, Mercury, Venus, very likely Earth, and possibly Mars are destroyed. During these times, it is possible that Saturn's moon Titan could achieve surface temperatures necessary to support life.
	8 billion	The Sun becomes a carbon-oxygen white dwarf with about 54.05 percent its present mass. At this point, if somehow the Earth survives, temperatures on the surface of the planet, as well as other remaining planets in the Solar System, will begin to start dropping rapidly, due to the white dwarf Sun emitting much less energy than it does today.
	22 billion	The end of the Universe in the Big Rip scenario, assuming a model of dark energy with w = −1.5. Observations of galaxy cluster speeds by the Chandra X-ray Observatory suggest that the true value of w is ~-0.991, meaning the Big Rip will not occur.
	50 billion	If the Earth and Moon are not engulfed by the Sun, by this time they will become tidelocked, with each showing only one face to the other. Thereafter, the tidal action of the Sun will extract angular momentum from the system, causing the lunar orbit to decay and the Earth's spin to accelerate.
	100 billion	The Universe's expansion causes all galaxies beyond the former Milky Way's Local Group to disappear beyond the cosmic light horizon, removing them from the observable universe.
	150 billion	The cosmic microwave background cools from its current temperature of ~2.7 K to 0.3 K, rendering it essentially undetectable with current technology.
	450 billion	Median point by which the ~47 galaxies of the Local Group will coalesce into a single large galaxy.
	800 billion	Expected time when the net light emission from the combined "Milkomeda" galaxy begins to decline as the red dwarf stars pass through their blue dwarf stage of peak luminosity.
	1012 (1 trillion)	Low estimate for the time until star formation ends in galaxies as galaxies are depleted of the gas clouds they need to form stars. The universe's expansion, assuming a constant dark energy density, multiplies the wavelength of the cosmic microwave background by 1029, exceeding the scale of the cosmic light horizon and rendering its evidence of the Big Bang undetectable. However, it may still be possible to determine the expansion of the universe through the study of hypervelocity stars.
	4x1012 (4 trillion)	Estimated time until the red dwarf star Proxima Centauri, the closest star to the Sun at a distance of 4.25 light-years, leaves the main sequence and becomes a white dwarf.
	1.2x1013 (12 trillion)	Estimated time until the red dwarf VB 10, as of 2016 the least massive main sequence star with an estimated mass of 0.075 M☉, runs out of hydrogen in its core and becomes a white dwarf.
	3×1013 (30 trillion)	Estimated time for stars (including the Sun) to undergo a close encounter with another star in local stellar neighborhoods. Whenever two stars (or stellar remnants) pass close to each other, their planets' orbits can be disrupted, potentially ejecting them from the system entirely. On average, the closer a planet's orbit to its parent star the longer it takes to be ejected in this manner, because it is gravitationally more tightly bound to the star.
	1014 (100 trillion)	High estimate for the time until normal star formation ends in galaxies. This marks the transition from the Stelliferous Era to the Degenerate Era; with no free hydrogen to form new stars, all remaining stars slowly exhaust their fuel and die.
	1.1–1.2×1014 (110–120 trillion)	Time by which all stars in the universe will have exhausted their fuel (the longest-lived stars, low-mass red dwarfs, have lifespans of roughly 10–20 trillion years). After this point, the stellar-mass objects remaining are stellar remnants (white dwarfs, neutron stars, black holes) and brown dwarfs. Collisions between brown dwarfs will create new red dwarfs on a marginal level: on average, about 100 stars will be shining in what was once the Milky Way. Collisions between stellar remnants will create occasional supernovae.
	1015 (1 quadrillion)	Estimated time until stellar close encounters detach all planets in star systems (including the Solar System) from their orbits. By this point, the Sun will have cooled to five degrees above absolute zero.
	1019 to 1020 (10–100 quintillion)	Estimated time until 90%–99% of brown dwarfs and stellar remnants (including the Sun) are ejected from galaxies. When two objects pass close enough to each other, they exchange orbital energy, with lower-mass objects tending to gain energy. Through repeated encounters, the lower-mass objects can gain enough energy in this manner to be ejected from their galaxy. This process eventually causes the Milky Way to eject the majority of its brown dwarfs and stellar remnants.
	1020 (100 quintillion)	Estimated time until the Earth collides with the black dwarf Sun due to the decay of its orbit via emission of gravitational radiation, if the Earth is not ejected from its orbit by a stellar encounter or engulfed by the Sun during its red giant phase.
	1030	Estimated time until those stars not ejected from galaxies (1%–10%) fall into their galaxies' central supermassive black holes. By this point, with binary stars having fallen into each other, and planets into their stars, via emission of gravitational radiation, only solitary objects (stellar remnants, brown dwarfs, ejected planets, black holes) will remain in the universe.
	2×1036	The estimated time for all nucleons in the observable universe to decay, if the proton half-life takes its smallest possible value (8.2×1033 years).
	3×1043	Estimated time for all nucleons in the observable universe to decay, if the proton half-life takes the largest possible value, 1041 years, assuming that the Big Bang was inflationary and that the same process that made baryons predominate over anti-baryons in the early Universe makes protons decay. By this time, if protons do decay, the Black Hole Era, in which black holes are the only remaining celestial objects, begins.
	1065	Assuming that protons do not decay, estimated time for rigid objects, from free-floating rocks in space to planets, to rearrange their atoms and molecules via quantum tunneling. On this timescale, any discrete body of matter "behaves like a liquid" and becomes a smooth sphere due to diffusion and gravity.
	5.8×1068	Estimated time until a stellar mass black hole with a mass of 3 solar masses decays into subatomic particles by the Hawking process.
	1.342×1099	Estimated time until the central black hole of S5 0014+81, as of 2015 the most massive known with the mass of 40 billion solar masses, dissipates by the emission of Hawking radiation, assuming zero angular momentum (non-rotating black hole). However, the black hole is on the state of accretion, so the time it takes may be longer than stated on the left.
	1.7×10106	Estimated time until a supermassive black hole with a mass of 20 trillion solar masses decays by the Hawking process. This marks the end of the Black Hole Era. Beyond this time, if protons do decay, the Universe enters the Dark Era, in which all physical objects have decayed to subatomic particles, gradually winding down to their final energy state in the heat death of the universe.
	10200	Estimated high time for all nucleons in the observable universe to decay, if they don't via the above process, through any one of many different mechanisms allowed in modern particle physics (higher-order baryon non-conservation processes, virtual black holes, sphalerons, etc.) on time scales of 1046 to 10200 years.
	101500	Assuming protons do not decay, the estimated time until all baryonic matter has either fused together to form iron-56 or decayed from a higher mass element into iron-56. (see iron star)
	$10^{10^{26}}$	Low estimate for the time until all objects exceeding the Planck mass collapse via quantum tunnelling into black holes, assuming no proton decay or virtual black holes. On this vast timescale, even ultra-stable iron stars are destroyed by quantum tunnelling events. First iron stars of sufficient mass will collapse via tunnelling into neutron stars. Subsequently, neutron stars and any remaining iron stars collapse via tunnelling into black holes. The subsequent evaporation of each resulting black hole into sub-atomic particles (a process lasting roughly 10100 years) is on these timescales instantaneous.
	$10^{10^{50}}$	Estimated time for a Boltzmann brain to appear in the vacuum via a spontaneous entropy decrease.
	$10^{10^{76}}$	High estimate for the time until all matter collapses into neutron stars or black holes, assuming no proton decay or virtual black holes, which then (on these timescales) instantaneously evaporate into sub-atomic particles.
	$10^{10^{120}}$	High estimate for the time for the Universe to reach its final energy state, even in the presence of a false vacuum.
	$10^{10^{10^{56}}}$	Around this vast timeframe, quantum tunnelling in any isolated patch of the vacuum could generate, via inflation, new Big Bangs giving birth to new universes. Because the total number of ways in which all the subatomic particles in the observable universe can be combined is $10^{10^{115}}$, a number which, when multiplied by $10^{10^{10^{56}}}$, disappears into the rounding error, this is also the time required for a quantum-tunnelled and quantum fluctuation-generated Big Bang to produce a new universe identical to our own, assuming that every new universe contained at least the same number of subatomic particles and obeyed laws of physics within the range predicted by string theory.

人類の未来

	現在からの年数	予想される出来事
	10,000年後	フランク・ドレイク独自の公式であるドレイクの方程式によると、技術的な文明は恐らく、この頃に寿命を迎える。
	10,000年後	もしグローバリゼーションの動向がパンミクシーに向かっていくのなら、人類の遺伝上の変異の地方化がこのころより後まで長引くことはない。有効個体数が実際の人口と等しくなることも無い。(これは同種であり少数の体質が未だに保存されているであろう、例えば、金髪が見えなくなる遺伝子ではないが、むしろ平らかつ世界的に分配される。)
	10,000年後	人類の誕生から絶滅までに生まれる全人類のうち半数が既に誕生しているであろうと主張するブランドン・カーターの公式や世界の終末についての議論によると、人類は95%の確率でこの時までに絶滅している。
	20,000年後	言語年代学を提唱したモリス・スワデシュの言語学モデルによると、この頃の未来の言語は彼らのスワデシュ・リストに載っている"中心語彙"の単語比較によると、彼らの現在の人祖の1%しか残っていない。
	100,000年以上後	酸素濃度を呼吸可能に保つために、この頃になると火星のテラフォーミングが必須となる。惑星のみを使用し太陽の効率で、現在地球上にできている生物圏と比較できるくらいの規模の生物圏が発達する。
	100万年後	光速の10%の速度で宇宙船が航行すると仮定すると、最も早くてこの頃に、人類が銀河系を植民地化した上で、有用な銀河の全てのエネルギーを使用できるようになる
	200万年後	脊柱動物の種は、この頃に一般的な異所的種分化を経験する。進化生物学者のジェームス・W・バレンタインは、もし人類が遺伝的に孤立したスペースコロニーとして、時間を超えて散乱したならば、銀河系は複数の人種の宿主となり、進化論的放射がもたらす形態の多様性と適応は私たちに衝撃を与えるだろうと予言した。(これは進化が住民の孤立化という自然な道を辿った場合の話であり、可能性として有り得る、故意的な遺伝的強化法の技術が発達した場合は関係がなくなる。)
	780万年後	人類は現在はすでにその歴史の半分が過ぎていると主張するリチャード・ゴットが公式化した世界の終末についての論争によると、人類はこの時には95%の確率で絶滅している。ref>J. Richard Gott, III (1993). “Implications of the Copernican principle for our future prospects”. ネイチャー 363 (6427): 315–319. Bibcode: 1993Natur.363..315G. doi:10.1038/363315a0. </ref> 。
	500万年から5000万年後	早くてこの頃には、現在の技術で到達できる範囲の銀河系全体に入植者が居住するようになる
	1億年後	according to フランク・ドレイクが独自に考案したドレイクの方程式によると、技術文明は遅くともこの頃に寿命を迎える。
	10億年後	アストロエンジニアリングを行えば、この頃に太陽光が強くなり、地球がハビダブル・ゾーンの外側に移動しても、小惑星のスイングバイを繰り返せば、地球の公転軌道を変えて地球をハビダブル・ゾーンの中に戻せると推測される。

宇宙機と宇宙開発

現在までに5機の宇宙機(ボイジャー1号・ボイジャー2号・パイオニア10号・パイオニア11号・ニュー・ホライズンズ)は、太陽系を脱出し、恒星間空間に飛び出す軌道に乗っている。それらは何らかの物体に衝突するという非常に確率が低いことが無い限り、永遠に飛行を続ける。

	現在からの年数	出来事
	10,000年後	パイオニア10号がバーナード星から3.8光年以内の距離を通過する。
	25,000年後	1974年11月16日に送信された無線の収集であるアシレボ・メッセージがその目的地である球状星団のM13までの距離を航行する。 これは恒星間空間に向けて送信された無線メッセージだけがこのような銀河系の遠い領域まで到達することを意味する。M13が、アシレボ・メッセージがM13に向かっている間に24光年動くこともありえるが、M13の直径が168光年であることから、アシレボ・メッセージはやはりM13に到達する。応答が地球に返ってくるまでには最低でもさらに25,000年かかる。
	32,000年後	パイオニア10号が、ロス248から3光年以内の場所を通過する。
	40,000年後	ボイジャー1号が、きりん座にある恒星のグリーゼ445(AC+79 3888としても知られる)から1.6光年以内の距離の地点を通過する。
	50,000年後	宇宙タイムカプセルのKEOが打ち上げられていたならば、KEOはこの頃に地球の大気圏に再突入する。
	296,000年後	ボイジャー2号は、地球から見て太陽以外で最も明るく見える恒星であるシリウスから4.3光年以内の距離の地点を通過する。
	800,000年後から800万年後	早く見積もってこの頃に、パイオニア10号の金属板が寿命を迎える(エッチングが不明点が多い恒星間空間での浸食によって破壊される)。
	200万年後	パイオニア10号が、アルデバランの近くを通過する。
	4 million	パイオニア11号が、わし座のある恒星の近くを通過する。
	800万年後	人工衛星のLAGEOSの軌道が減衰し、大気圏に再突入し、遠い未来の人類の子孫にメッセージを運ぶ。そして、そのとき予想される大陸の地図が現れる。
	10億年後	この頃、二つのボイジャー・ゴールデン・レコードは寿命を迎える(記憶された情報が回復不可能に陥る)と推測されている。

Technological projects

	Years from now	Event
	10,000	Planned lifespan of the Long Now Foundation's several ongoing projects, including a 10,000-year clock known as the Clock of the Long Now, the Rosetta Project, and the Long Bet Project. Estimated lifespan of the HD-Rosetta analog disc, an ion beam-etched writing medium on nickel plate, a technology developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory and later commercialized. (The Rosetta Project uses this technology, named after the Rosetta Stone).
	100,000+	Estimated lifespan of Memory of Mankind (MOM) self storage-style repository in Hallstatt salt mine in Austria, which stores information on inscribed tablets of stoneware.
	1 million	Planned lifespan of the Human Document Project being developed at the University of Twente in the Netherlands.
	1 billion	Estimated lifespan of "Nanoshuttle memory device" using an iron nanoparticle moved as a molecular switch through a carbon nanotube, a technology developed at the University of California at Berkeley.
	more than 13 billion	Estimated lifespan of "Superman memory crystal" data storage using femtosecond laser-etched nanostructures in glass, a technology developed at the University of Southampton.

Human constructs

	Years from now	Event
	50,000	Estimated atmospheric lifetime of tetrafluoromethane, the most durable greenhouse gas.
	1 million	Current glass objects in the environment will be decomposed. Various public monuments composed of hard granite will have eroded one meter, in a moderate climate, assuming a rate of 1 Bubnoff unit (1 mm / 1,000 years, or ~1 inch / 10,000 years). Without maintenance, the Great Pyramid of Giza will erode into unrecognizability. On the Moon, Neil Armstrong's "one small step" footprint at Tranquility Base will erode by this time, along with those left by all twelve Apollo moonwalkers, due to the accumulated effects of space weathering. (Normal erosion processes active on Earth are not present due to the Moon's almost complete lack of atmosphere).
	7.2 million	Without maintenance, Mount Rushmore will erode into unrecognizability.
	100 million	Future archaeologists should be able to identify an "Urban Stratum" of fossilized great coastal cities, mostly through the remains of underground infrastructure such as building foundations and utility tunnels.

Astronomical events

Extremely rare astronomical events beginning in the 11th millennium AD (year 10,001) will be:

	Date / Years from now	Event
	20 August, AD 10,663	A simultaneous total solar eclipse and transit of Mercury.
	25 August, AD 11,268	A simultaneous total solar eclipse and transit of Mercury.
	28 February, AD 11,575	A simultaneous annular solar eclipse and transit of Mercury.
	17 September, AD 13,425	A near-simultaneous transit of Venus and Mercury.
	AD 13,727	The Earth's axial precession will have made Vega the northern pole star.
	13,000 years	By this point, halfway through the precessional cycle, Earth's axial tilt will be reversed, causing summer and winter to occur on opposite sides of Earth's orbit. This means that the seasons in the northern hemisphere, which experiences more pronounced seasonal variation due to a higher percentage of land, will be even more extreme, as it will be facing towards the Sun at Earth's perihelion and away from the Sun at aphelion.
	5 April, AD 15,232	A simultaneous total solar eclipse and transit of Venus.
	20 April, AD 15,790	A simultaneous annular solar eclipse and transit of Mercury.
	14,000-17,000 years	The Earth's axial precession will make Canopus the South Star, but it will only be within 10° of the south celestial pole.
	AD 20,346	Thuban will be the northern pole star.
	AD 27,800	Polaris will again be the northern pole star.
	27,000 years	The eccentricity of Earth's orbit will reach a minimum, 0.00236 (it is now 0.01671).
	October, AD 38,172	A transit of Uranus from Neptune, the rarest of all planetary transits.
	26 July, AD 69,163	A simultaneous transit of Venus and Mercury.
	AD 70,000	Comet Hyakutake returns to the inner solar system, after traveling in its orbit out to its aphelion 3,410 A.U. from the Sun and back.
	27 and 28 March, AD 224,508	Respectively, Venus and then Mercury will transit the Sun.
	AD 571,741	A simultaneous transit of Venus and the Earth as seen from Mars
	6 million	Comet C/1999 F1 (Catalina), one of the longest period comets known, returns to the inner solar system, after traveling in its orbit out to its aphelion 66,600 A.U. (1.05 light years) from the Sun and back.

Calendric predictions

	Years from now	Event
	10,000	—	The Gregorian calendar will be roughly 10 days out of sync with the seasons.
	7004108680000000000♠10,868年 + 4日	10 June, AD 12,892	In the Hebrew calendar, due to a gradual drift with regard to the solar year, Passover will fall on the northern summer solstice (it is meant to fall around the spring equinox).
	7004188490000000000♠18,849年 + 209日	AD 20,874	The lunar Islamic calendar and the solar Gregorian calendar will share the same year number. After this, the shorter Islamic calendar will slowly overtake the Gregorian.
	25,000	—	The Tabular Islamic calendar will be roughly 10 days out of sync with the Moon's phase.
	7004468760000000000♠46,876年 + 268日	1 March, AD 48,901	The Julian calendar (365.25 days) and Gregorian calendar (365.2425 days) will be one year apart.

Nuclear power

	Years from now	Event
	10,000	The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, for nuclear weapons waste, is planned to be protected until this time, with a "Permanent Marker" system designed to warn off visitors through both multiple languages (the six UN languages and Navajo) and through pictograms. (The Human Interference Task Force has provided the theoretical basis for United States plans for future nuclear semiotics.)
	20,000	The Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, the 2,600 km2 (1,000 sq mi) area of Ukraine and Belarus left deserted by the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, becomes safe for human life.
	30,000	Estimated supply lifespan of fission-based breeder reactor reserves, using known sources, assuming 2009 world energy consumption.
	60,000	Estimated supply lifespan of fission-based light water reactor reserves if it is possible to extract all the uranium from seawater, assuming 2009 world energy consumption.
	211,000	Half-life of technetium-99, the most important long-lived fission product in uranium-derived nuclear waste.
	15.7 million	Half-life of iodine-129, the most durable long-lived fission product in uranium-derived nuclear waste.
	60 million	Estimated supply lifespan of fusion power reserves if it is possible to extract all the lithium from seawater, assuming 1995 world energy consumption.
	5 billion	Estimated supply lifespan of fission-based breeder reactor reserves if it is possible to extract all the uranium from seawater, assuming 1983 world energy consumption.
	150 billion	Estimated supply lifespan of fusion power reserves if it is possible to extract all the deuterium from seawater, assuming 1995 world energy consumption.

Graphical timelines

For graphical, logarithmic timelines of these events see:

• Graphical timeline of the universe (to 8 billion years from now)
• Graphical timeline of the Stelliferous Era (to 10²⁰ years from now)
• Graphical timeline from Big Bang to Heat Death (to 10¹⁰⁰⁰ years from now)

See also

• Chronology of the Universe
• Detailed logarithmic timeline
• Earth's location in the Universe
• Future of Earth
• Human timeline
• Life timeline
• Nature timeline
• Space and survival
• 10th millennium
• Terasecond and longer
• Timeline of natural history
• Timeline of the formation of the Universe
• Timeline of the near future

References

Bibliography

• Adams, Fred C. (2008), “Long term astrophysical processes”, in Bostrom, Nick; Ćirković, Milan M., Global catastrophic risks, Oxford University Press, ISBN 0-19-857050-3, https://books.google.com/books?id=-Jxc88RuJhgC&pg=PA33. 
• Brownlee, Donald E. (2010), “Planetary habitability on astronomical time scales”, in Schrijver, Carolus J.; Siscoe, George L., Heliophysics: Evolving Solar Activity and the Climates of Space and Earth, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 0-521-11294-X, https://books.google.com/books?id=M8NwTYEl0ngC&pg=PA79.